Saturday, December 6, 2008

A good company = good business?

After looking at Qianhu's financials, I've decided not to become vested. Why so? I've taken away some valuable lessons from this.

1) A good company might not be a good business.

From my business overview so far, seems that Qianhu is a well-run company, led by able management. It might turn out to be a great ornamental fish company, I do not have too much doubts about it. But the problem lies in that a well-run ornamental fish company is at most, a great ornamental fish company. It might not necessarily be a good business. As someone once said, "A horse which can count from one to ten is a remarkable horse, not a remarkable mathematician., or at lest something in the realms of this. There are restrictions in the industry, one the more prominent being the small worldwide industry size of $14 billion (even though it has been growing very impressively).

2) Good management does not necessarily = good outcome

Few will disagree with me on the management capabilities of the Yap family. Rarely do you see someone who has contributed so substantially to not only the company itself, but to the industry as a whole with various product and innovations. Nonetheless, a fantastic manager managing a chicken rice stall can ultimately, only see his chicken rice stall grow larger in size and open a few more stalls, but nothing more than that. Similarly, Mr Yap and family have chosen to continue their family business and venture into the ornamental fish industry. Nonetheless, the industry seems to have relatively muted prospects at this moment. A growing industry, but not huge enough for me to want to own this business for years to come.

However, I might be wrong and rue my missed opportunity for years to come. I shall continue to monitor events within this company though, and hopefully my judgement will be proved wrong in the years to come.

1 comment:

Tag Yuxiang said...

why not buy gugujiaos. its cheap and good now.