Showing posts with label 2nd Chance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2nd Chance. Show all posts

Sunday, November 16, 2008

2nd Chance Properties on Business Times

Didn't catch this article on the day itself. Shall post it here for all to read. The exact link is here: http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/news/2008/11/1457/second-chance-an-undiscovered-property-play


Nov 14, 2008 - The Business Times
R Sivanithy

ONE of the more interesting corporate developments over the past few weeks may have gone unnoticed by most investors - an offer to listed retail-cum-property group Second Chance Properties (SCP) to buy the company's entire property portfolio.

While some companies might have jumped at the chance of a large cash windfall (something all shareholders would surely welcome because it would mean a big payout), what's interesting about it is that SCP on Wednesday announced that it had decided to reject the offer. The reason? It doesn't need the money!

'We have been accumulating properties since 1999 at attractive prices and have managed to build up a sizeable portfolio,' said SCP's chief executive Mohamed Salleh in an interview with BT. 'All our core businesses are doing well, our gearing is low and the offer, which was unsolicited in the first place, was not attractive so I didn't want to waste the company's time pursuing it.'
SCP on Oct 20 disclosed that it had been approached by an international property consulting firm on behalf of an unnamed client who was interested in buying SCP's entire property portfolio for an undisclosed sum.

As at June 30, SCP owned 42 properties valued at $118 million, of which 39 are spread throughout Singapore and three are in Kuala Lumpur.
The Singapore portfolio comprises mainly shop units in shopping malls in the Orchard Road area and in HDB hubs. Net rental per year is about $7.5 million.

'We have very low gearing and all our properties are tenanted with leases of 2-3 years that provide a steady rental stream,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh.
'Even with the downturn, we've found that demand for retail premises is high so there's no problem finding tenants. Of course if things get much worse, we may have to accept lower rentals, maybe 10 per cent. But for now, there is still plenty of demand.'

SCP this week reported a 22.4 per cent increase in its first quarter revenues to $19.2 million. Net profit was down 2.8 per cent to $5.4 million. The company has proposed an interim cash dividend of 2.5 cents per share and is also proposing a share buyback scheme.
'We want to do a buyback because our shares have fallen to a large discount to our NTA (net tangible assets) of 30.4 cents,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh. SCP's shares yesterday traded at 20 cents, a 34 per cent discount to NTA and indicating a dividend yield of 12 per cent.

If SCP presents an attractive investment story, why has its shares languished from lack of attention? One reason is a misplaced perception - despite the company's name - that it is mainly a retail company specialising in female Islamic apparel.

This, in turn, has led to an absence of adequate research coverage by broking houses which tend to view the firm as a retail play - with all the associated slow-growth connotations that accompany the sector.

Truth is, although SCP counts the retail sector as one of its core businesses, it should also be viewed as offering decent property exposure. In fact, it may be one of the local market's undiscovered - and possibly undervalued - property plays.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Red Flag alert?

2nd Chance posted its 1Q FY2009 results quite recently. Revenue and profits up by double-digit figures despite Hari Raya being in 1Q FY2008, which seems hearty considering the current climate. All 3 segments of business posted increases in profits, with the securities segment paper loss of $10 million charged to equity after 2nd Chance declared the near-term intention not to sell or purchase equities, thus classifying it under financial assets for sale.

Management kept to their promise, declaring an interim dividend of 2.5 cents, which at the price I bought, equates to about a 15% interim dividend yield, sticking to the declared dividend payments at which I could look forward to a total 20% yield. Sounds good, the market says, with the counter trading volume going up and trading price rising 7-8% compounded during Thur and Fri trading, bucking the overall downtrend. This came rather surprising to me as companies normally run up some time before the declaration of the dividends, so the markets must take the results and the sustained dividend yield as a positive for the share price to run up so sharply.

Time to rejoice? Not yet. Let's take a quick look at the financials.

1) There has been an increase of appoximately $16 million in short-term borrowings that are due in less than a year, which are backed by mortgages and assigment of rental proceeds. Assuming that of course the borrowings will not be repayed through the mortgages, how much of the rental proceeds can cover the short-term borrowings of $43 million? Rental proceeds at this moment are still little less than $1 million. Seems that the cash from operations is still healthy at around $4 million, but this amount is insufficient to cover the short-term loans, even if this $4 million is a quarterly figure and that retail businesses tend to pick up towards the start and end of the calendar year due to seasonal effects.

2) The dividend declared for this FY was 3.5 cents. At the current float, this amounts to around $10 million attributable to shareholders. However, the net cash at bank of around $1.6 million is largely financed by the additional $16 million short-term borrowings. Is it possible to sustain this high dividend distributions to shareholders without constant loans?


Agreed, one might argue that hey, 2nd Chance's gearing is at ~0.5X right now. This is relatively low compared to its peers. But it sure tweaks a few eyebrows to know that the current dividends are being sustained by borrowings from banks, even if the likelihood of securing loans is very high due to its low gearing.

3) medium term outlook has detoriated due to the political instability in Malaysia. Management has candidly revealed that the plans to expand to 100 stores in the next 5 years will have to slow down. Nonetheless, market share might improve as 2nd Chance has the financial resources to weather this slowdown more than the smaller fragmented retailers who do not have differentiated positioning. Furthermore, the business cycles of 2nd Chance tend to overlap i.e. gold prices are might continue going up as it is viewed as a safe store of value in tough times, so its gold business might see improved profits, although revenue might be another issue.


Nonetheless, 2nd Chance's boss, Mr Salleh, has proved to be relatively astute in investing in downturns, and has a large percentage holding of 2nd Chance shares. Looking on the bright side too, 2nd Chance recently requested for the mandate of shareholders to approve share buybacks. At this time, seems that the management might be finding shares at current valuations very attractive. Maybe the management knows something that we don't. Still, would seek clarifications before deciding on my next course of action.

Pays to look at your company's statements from time to time, to keep track of the latest ongoings and whether certain red flags are appearing or not. Shall wait and see.

Will try to look at Olam's very soon and post some comments regarding their recent set of statements. Traded slightly down due to management's warning for tough times ahead, despite posting a relatively good set of results. Will try to see how much the market is pricing in for a drop in commodities prices and post my verdict from there.

Friday, August 29, 2008

2nd Chance Properties

This company is not a very widely followed company, and is not covered by analysts. Its market capitalisation as of 29 Aug 2008 was approximately $111 million, and thus can be categorised as a small-cap company. Shall talk a bit more about its business since not many people may have prior knowledge of this company, although most would have seen and recognised the brand.

2nd Chance Properties Ltd is a company which sells Muslim apparel under the "First Lady" name, as well as gold jewellery under the "Golden Chance" brand. It is also a small property player in Singapore, owning retail property in places like City Plaza, Toa Payoh and other places. It has rather ambitious aims to be the largest Malaysian retailer and wholesaler of modern Islamic apparel in the region, hoping to expand to 100 stores in Malaysia in the next few years from 30(although it recently mentioned that it will slow down expansion in Malaysia less aggressively due to the deepening political crisis).

The CEO of 2nd Chance, Mr Mohd Salleh, has been adopting the strategy of investing the cash flow from its retail and gold businesses in selective retail property, acquiring about $85 million worth of property in total, with an eye on the future growing demand for City Plaza. It then paid of its debt relatively, bringing its debt-equity down from 1.26 in 2003 to 0.40 in 2008(full year FY2008 unauditied statements).

A quick look at its 2008 profit/loss statement saw a 10.39% rise in revenue, with a jump in its net profit for the period by 31%, recording its 6th consecutive year of record profits. Its competitive position has been highlighted by its margins, with its profit margin increasing from 38.1% in 2007 to 45.4% in 2008. Its cost of sales had impressively dropped by 6.90%. Do take note of the fact that gold has been rising at astronomical rates following the weakness in the equity markets. Operating cash flow jumped 47.3% for the same period. After revaluation of its property value by Jones Lang LaSalle, it showed a $15.1 million increase with total value now standing at $118.4 million. Its book value sood at 34.27cents, which translated to a price-to-book value of 1.00 as of today.

Taking a look at cash flow, free cash flow for the firm dropped though, by a drastic 68.2%. A quick look at it revealed that there was a 6-fold jump in the investments in property, as well as securities held for trading. The recent weakness in the property markets have brought down property prices to more realistic valuations, and the large increase in acquisition activities does not come as a surprise. However, its increase in securities trading, where the firm actually bought REITs, although the board had previously mentioned would be cutting down, could be a cause of concern. Although the selloff in equity markets might have brought prices down, however, as an investor, it would probably be a little more re-assuring if the company places its emphasis on its core businesses. A little more reassuring could be the fact that it had a net outflow in securities due to disposal.

Taking a look at the breakdown in contributions, revenue from Malaysian operations increased by 26.3%, in-line with management's ambitions of expanding in Malaysia. There were 10 new stores opened in the financial year. Rental from investment in properties increased by 13.0%, as most of the shops fetched higher rental rates for the company. The revenue from the gold business however dropped by 9.7% due to the decrease in demand for gold in times of rising gold prices. The Malaysian business saw a 36.4% increase in gross profit due to the expanding business, and although gold revenue dropped, the profit rose by 5.4% due to lower average cost of gold in stock.

Going on to debt, although there was a decrease in debt-equity, however, the current ratio rose to 1.44 from 0.9, the reason being the management's change in focus by switching its fund from long-term funds, which were carrying higher interest rates, to short-term loan facilities. Debt-equity was not totally reflective of the debt level of the firm, which rose as a whole, because the shareholder's equity rose more than the debt, from $96.7 million to $113.6 million. This is however not a cause of concern for the firm's current liabilities can be covered by its current assets despite a drop in working capital. The firm has been adequately backed by strong cash flow from operations as well. Also, looking at the brighter side, the firm can finance its operations through borrowing relatively easily because of its low gearing.

Inventory turnover dropped from 2.2 to 1.9. However, as the breakdown of inventory(which consists of gold and apparel) was not shown in the reports, it is hard for me to ascertain which particular item led to this drop. A guess on my part though, could be that the drop in demand for gold could have resulted in higher inventory levels, thus affecting the inventory turnover, especially so since gold would have been a large portion of its inventory.

Looking forward, the company faces times where its profits from First Lady Malaysia could be affected due to inflation and the political crisis, as earlier mentioned. As for gold prices, the volatility could result in either higher profits(if it rises) or lower profits(if it drops). The retail segment looks more promising however, due to the rise in rentals and a strong SGD which could keep the SIBOR and other interest rates down. The management has declared a dividend for next year and 2 years later at 3.5cents and 3.8cents respectively, which at current prices translates to a dividend yield of slightly more than 10%.

I believe that 2nd Chance now stands in a unique position whereby property rental income might now be the cash cow for the firm. Due to its previous efforts of 'biting the bullet' and paying off its debt for the retail property, the rental is now bringing in the cash for the firm. This could bode well for its gold and retail arm, which had previously supported the property business of the company.

Going on, its new concept of the Muslim Mart seems to be kicking off, but however, the full impact and revenue contribution from this concept will only be seen in the next FY. The concept revolves around providing a one-stop destination for Muslims to purchase their clothings, books, toiletries and other items together. I paid a visit to its Mart and found that this concept had brought about a big difference as compared to the fragmented retailers which were situated nearby. Although I agree that the retail industry is a relatively low barriers-to-entry industry with many fragmented players, however, I believe that the niche lies in its appeal to the mass market and the branding of First Lady. It is distinctively the most recognisable brand, alongside other brands in the area, and apparel are going at low prices(so the high margins are due to its gold and jewellery business). It also aims to gain the heart share of the market through its regular Lucky Draw promotions, although I believe this would have a limited impact on the business of the company. Its easily recognisable brand however plays a huge part in the capturing of the heart share, as Nike, Addidas and other big companies have shown in decades.

After applying a conservative 5% increment and 9% discount rate to my DCF method, i arrived at a implied value of around 41cents, not including its dividend yield of around 10%. The market seems to be projecting a modest growth of the firm, without being influenced by the board's ambitions and the CEO's views that 15% CAGR is attainable for the firm. Now then, you would probably want to ask, with the stock trading at relatively comparable prices to its implied value,and thus a smaller margin of safety, why would I want to single out 2nd Chance as a candidate for someone's portfolio?

To answer this, we shall look at several factors. This stock was not spared in the equity market weakness, dropping around 32% as compared to the STI's drop of approximately 29%, underperforming the index slightly. Weak sentiment in the property market could have led to the company trading at current valuations. However, it has not fallen as much as the rest of the property players, possibly due to its high dividend yield and also because it is not a pure property play. It is my belief however, that this stock is still trading at a discount to its intrinsic value, due to the following reasons. Its ROE has been relatively 'low' at 21%. This is probably due to the fact that it owns the property that it rents out, as compared to other property players which might lease the property and thus rake in much higher profits. This would mean that the ROE would only increase in future, as can be seen from the latest financials when its ROE increased despite increase in shareholder's equity. Also, I would like to think that because of this factor, 2nd Chance is currently situated in a position whereby it can either increase its income by raising rental rates or expand by pumping in money from its rental income into its retail businesses, both being win-win situations. The recent weakness in the property market might entice the astute CEO, who has won the Malaysia Businessman Award, to go hunting for more property. The current retail stores in City Plaza and Paya Lebar area have en-bloc potential with Paya Lebar being earmarked as a sub-regional centre. This could easily fetch high prices on sale, and result in special dividends or capital gains, either way which could bode well for investors. With the CEO's good track record of investing smartly in property, I wouldn't bet on him not repeating his actions again.

There are of course downsides to the stock. One big problem I would like to point out is that the stock is largely illiquid, with days where not a single trade had been completed. This is largely due to the low amount of free float, with the CEO himself owning around 50% of the stock(which might make u think if the CEO has another motive in being so dividend happy, but which of course is another story altogether).

Now, for those who have had the patience to read up till here, I would like to emphasise that this company is not the sort of deep-value plays that have been characteristic of value investors. It is essential however, to keep in mind the main advantage of the company: providing stable, free cash flow and at the same time providing growth potential. Its retail segment is a stable source of regenerating income and the retail segment, especially with the new Muslim Mart concept, could be an opportunity for 2nd Chance to improve on its market share(by its own estimates, 40% of the market share in Malaysia and Singapore). A pseudo-REIT, with the potential for more growth as compared to the average REIT. It probably deserves at least a 2nd look.

Also, pardon me for not being so specific in my financial analysis, the reason being that I don't want to make this post too long. For people who might be interested to know more, do feel free to make a comment or drop me a mail.